Phase IIB Rheumatoid Arthritis Dose Ranging Study for BMS-945429 in Subjects Who Are Not Responding to Methotrexate
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-06-30, after 2011-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mgin subjectsto determinedlto randomization
Phrases that lowered it: moderatearthritisrheumatoidsubjectsto evaluate -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 58816 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 21 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 58816 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12144 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 59.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- adalimumab, clazakizumab, methotrexate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety Study of BMS-986142 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02638948 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Psoriatic Arthritis Dose Ranging Study for BMS-945429 in Subjects Who Are Not Responding to NSAIDs or Non-biologic Disease Modifying Anti-rheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) Therapy NCT01490450 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of SM03 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Receiving Methotrexate NCT04192617 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Phase IIB Dose Ranging Study in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02015520 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Study of Mavrilimumab in Subjects With Moderate-to-Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01706926 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.