Vitamin D HIV Study on Postmenopausal Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-02-29, after 2011-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: equal toboneor equalgreatermetastases
Phrases that lowered it: healthagedeffect40myeloma -
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 35208 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 68 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 53 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 35208 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6511 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Vitamin D and Effect on Heart Disease and Insulin Resistance NCT01093417 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D Dose Finding Study NCT01092338 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Effect of High Dose Vitamin D Supplementation on HIV Latency NCT03426592 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D Supplementation in HIV Youth NCT01523496 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- High-Dose Vitamin D3 Supplementation in the Treatment of Human Immune Deficiency Virus Patients Trial NCT05306704 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.