A Study to Evaluate the Effects of Multiple Doses of CK-2017357 in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-03-31, after 2011-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientspatientplacebophase iiable to
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsevaluatedailycriteriamales -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 70 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- riluzole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dose Titration Study to Test Safety and Effects of CK-2017357 in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT01486849 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- A Study of CK-2017357 in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT01089010 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Study of Safety, Tolerability & Efficacy of CK-2017357 in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT01709149 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of CK-2127107 in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT03160898 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- TJ-68 Clinical Trial in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) and Muscle Cramps NCT04998305 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.