Phase I Study of GSK1550188 in Japanese Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantbrainagentkidneyplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningevaluate theto evaluatepharmacokineticsvisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 438 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1214 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Adaptive Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Tolerability of GSK2586184 NCT01777256 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• Belimumab Phase I Study in Chinese Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02880852 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Single Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Participants and Multiple Dose Study of JNJ-55920839 in Participants With Mild to Moderate Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02609789 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of NKTR-358 (LY3471851) in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT03556007 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of CC-220 to Treat Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. NCT02185040 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.