A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP015K

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasthe subjectpharmacodynamicsascendingsubject is
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersthe pharmacokineticsalcoholsingle
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 12 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 127 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP015K NCT01364974 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Single and Multiple Oral Administration Study of ASP015K in Healthy Nonelderly Volunteers NCT01225224 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2408 Following Single Intravenous Doses in Healthy Subjects NCT02125435 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate a Single Intravenous (IV) Dose Using a New Manufactured Clone and Single Ascending Doses of Subcutaneous (SC) Injections NCT02150070 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Single Oral Dose Study of ASP015K in Healthy Volunteers Assessing the Relative Bioavailability Across Three Tablet Strengths From a New Formulation of ASP015K NCT01486017 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.