Efficacy and Safety of a Neoadjuvant Treatment in Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dlmgpancreaticpriortreatment
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetyopenthe efficacysafety of
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of Gemcitabine-erlotinib Versus Gemcitabine-erlotinib-capecitabine in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01303029 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine With or Without Capecitabine and/or Radiation Therapy or Gemcitabine With or Without Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT00634725 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Pancreatic Cancer NCT00810719 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Erlotinib, Gemcitabine and Oxaliplatin Combination Chemotherapy to Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01505413 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine and Pulse Dose Erlotinib in Second Line Treatment of Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT02154737 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.