Efficacy Study of OPC-34712 in Adults With Acute Schizophrenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: other protocolmay applycriteria mayplaceborelapse
  Phrases that lowered it: disordermaleadultor femaletr
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 66 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of the Effectiveness of Three Different Doses of OPC-34712 in the Treatment of Adults With Acute Schizophrenia NCT01396421 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Oral OPC-34712 and Aripiprazole for Treatment of Acute Schizophrenia NCT00905307 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study of Oral OPC-34712 as Maintenance Treatment in Adults With Schizophrenia NCT01397786 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Dose-finding Trial of OPC-34712 in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT01451164 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate the Effects of OPC-34712 on QT/QTc in Subjects With Schizophrenia or Schizoaffective Disorder NCT01423916 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.