Evaluation of AGN-150998 in Exudative Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-04-30, after 2011-09-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagethe safetysafety andeyerandomized double
Phrases that lowered it: 20pharmacokineticis conductedconducted inage -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 68 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 137 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 10 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 137 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 68 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4682 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2279 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ranibizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy of AM712 in Patients with NAMD NCT05345769 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- A Safety And Efficacy Study Of ALG-1001 In Human Subjects With Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT01749891 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Safety and Bioactivity of AXT107 in Subjects With Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT04746963 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
- ESBA1008 Safety, Tolerability and Effects in Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Patients NCT01304693 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- A Study of ASKG712 in Patients With Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT05456828 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.