Investigation of the Impact of Different Application Volumes of Insulin Aspart in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (137 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: typehourscontrolledacuteinfusion
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticpharmacokineticsvisitboth inclusivedosing
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Absorption of Insulin Following Subcutaneous Bolus Administration With Different Bolus Durations NCT01792323 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Research Study of How Faster-acting Insulin Aspart Moves Into, Through, and Out of the Body and How it Works in the Body When Given Through an Insulin Pump to People With Type 1 Diabetes NCT03215498 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Comparison of Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of Insulin Aspart, BIAsp70, BIAsp50 and Fast-acting Human Insulin NCT00888732 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Randomised Trial Investigating the Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Properties of Faster-acting Insulin Aspart in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes NCT02131246 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study of U-500 Insulin (LY041001) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02588950 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.