Ph I Ipilimumab Vemurafenib Combo in Patients With v-Raf Murine Sarcoma Viral Oncogene Homolog B1 (BRAF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastatictumormelanomaradiationsafe
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsefficacy andclinical trialcomparisongroup
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 307 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Plus Ipilimumab Compared With Ipilimumab Alone in the Treatment of Previously Untreated, Unresectable, or Metastatic Melanoma NCT01927419 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Phase II Safety Study of Vemurafenib Followed by Ipilimumab in Subjects With V600 BRAF Mutated Advanced Melanoma NCT01673854 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of a Sequencing Schedule of Cobimetinib Plus Vemurafenib Followed by Immunotherapy With an Anti- PD-L1 Antibody in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600 Mutant Melanoma NCT02902029 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma Patients NCT03224208 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing 3 Study Medicines (Encorafenib, Binimetinib, Pembrolizumab) to 2 Study Medicines (Ipilimumab and Nivolumab) in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT05926960 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.