Safety and Efficacy of ALD518 for Reducing Oral Mucositis in Head and Neck Cancer Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancermetastaticradiotherapyradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsoralevaluate theto evaluatevisit
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• EC-18 for Oral Mucositis in Patients With Concomitant Chemoirradiation NCT03200340 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AG013 in Oral Mucositis Compared to Placebo When Administered Three Times Per Day NCT03234465 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Escalating Study of SGX942 for Oral Mucositis in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT02013050 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• DOM-INNATE: Study of SGX942 for the Treatment of Oral Mucositis in Patients With Concomitant Chemoradiation Therapy for Head and Neck Cancer NCT03237325 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of SBG vs Placebo in Head and Neck Cancer Patients Undergoing Radiation Therapy NCT00790322 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.