Rotating Pazopanib and Everolimus to Avoid Resistance

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancercellradiationheart
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andthe efficacybleedingdrugvirus
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pazopanib Versus Sunitinib in the Treatment of Locally Advanced and/or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT00720941 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Expanded Phase I Pazopanib and Everolimus in Advanced Solid Tumors and Previously Treated Advanced Urothelial Cancer NCT01184326 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Pazopanib as an Adjuvant Treatment for Localized Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) NCT01235962 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Pazopanib Versus Sunitinib in the Treatment of Asian Subjects With Locally Advanced and/or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT01147822 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Everolimus Post Pazopanib Treatment in Metastatic or Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT01545817 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.