Vandetanib in Preventing Head and Neck Cancer in Patients With Precancerous Head and Neck Lesions

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularcancerpatients mustpatientconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: blood pressurerangetrialdays beforescreening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial of ZD6474, Paclitaxel, Carboplatin, 5-Fluorouracil, and Radiation Therapy Followed by Surgery NCT01183559 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy (RT) With or Without Vandetanib in Treating Patients With High-Risk Stage III or Stage IV Head and Neck Cancer NCT00720083 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Abraxane Weekly and Three Weekly Schedule With Vandetanib NCT00667147 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Vandetanib in Individuals With Kidney Cancer NCT00566995 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Study of GemOx and Vandetanib in Advanced Solid Malignancy NCT00660725 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.