1st Line Chemotherapy Alone or With Bevacizumab in Treating Older Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerblockcardiacpurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: trialrandomizedpatientsagedline
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Chemotherapy and Bevacizumab With or Without Bevacizumab Maintenance Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00952029 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Second-Line Combination Chemotherapy With or Without Bevacizumab in Treating Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Who Have Received First-Line Chemotherapy and Bevacizumab NCT00720512 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Bevacizumab in Combination With First-Line Chemotherapy in Patients Aged 75 Years of Older With Metastatic Colorectal Adenocarcinoma (Prodige20) NCT01900717 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Clinical Study of FOLFOXIRI With Bevacizumab As First-line Therapy in Patients With mCRC NCT02246049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Combination Chemotherapy and Bevacizumab as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00719797 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.