FOLFOX/Bevacizumab With Onartuzumab (MetMAb) Versus Placebo as First-Line Treatment in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancercolorectalfirst linemelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: or disorderand safetyefficacy andsignificantadult
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Onartuzumab (MetMAb) in Combination With mFOLFOX6 in Patients With Metastatic Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) Negative Gastroesophageal Cancer NCT01590719 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Study of Onartuzumab in Combination With mFOLFOX6 in Participants With Metastatic HER2-Negative and MET-Positive Gastroesophageal Cancer NCT01662869 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Folfox4 + Weekly Cetuximab vs Folfox 4+Biweekly Cetuximab by Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00479752 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• OPAL Study: A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) in Combination With FOLFOXIRI in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00940303 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of ABT-165 Plus FOLFIRI vs Bevacizumab Plus FOLFIRI in Subjects With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With Fluoropyrimidine, Oxaliplatin and Bevacizumab NCT03368859 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.