Safety and Efficacy Study of SAR 1118 to Treat Dry Eye Conducted in a Controlled Adverse Environment (CAE) (OPUS-1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellspriorsubjects withsituin subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: ocularophthalmicdryeyesolution
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy of SAR 1118 (0.1%, 1.0%, 5.0%) Ophthalmic Solution in Subjects With Dry Eye Conducted in a Controlled Adverse Environment (CAE) NCT00926185 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Effect of 0.003% AR-15512 on Subjects With Dry Eye Disease NCT06544694 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• ALY688 Ophthalmic Solution in Subjects With Dry Eye Disease NCT04899518 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2b Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of AR-15512 Ophthalmic Solution for the Treatment of Dry Eye Disease NCT04498182 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate 0.003% AR-15512 Safety and Drop Attributes NCT06660290 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.