MK2206 in Treating Patients With Advanced Refractory Biliary Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-05-31, after 2011-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationmseccreatininepatients mustlong
Phrases that lowered it: refractorymalemkclinical trialweeks -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 312 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 500 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 500 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 312 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- MK2206 in Treating Patients With Advanced Liver Cancer That Did Not Respond to Previous Therapy NCT01239355 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
- Akt Inhibitor MK2206 in Treating Patients With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01277757 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Akt Inhibitor MK2206 in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Colon or Rectal Cancer That is Metastatic or Locally Advanced and Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT01802320 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- MK2206 and Paclitaxel in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01263145 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
- Akt Inhibitor MK2206 in Treating Patients With Advanced Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT01260701 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.