A Biomarker Study of Secukinumab in Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsrandomizationsecukinumabmay applycriteria may
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidat screeningjointsmtx
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 277 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 315 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy at 24 Weeks and Safety, Tolerability and Long Term Efficacy of Secukinumab (AIN457) in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) and an Inadequate Response to Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor α (Anti-TNFα) Agents (CAIN457F2309 and CAIN457F2309E1) NCT01350804 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Efficacy at 24 Weeks and Safety, Tolerability and Long Term Efficacy up to 2 Years of Secukinumab (AIN457) in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis and an Inadequate Response to Anti-TNFα Agents NCT01377012 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Secukinumab in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Taking Methotrexate NCT01359943 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AIN457 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Taking Methotrexate (MTX) NCT00928512 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Secukinumab Efficacy and Safety Study in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response to Anti-TNFα Agents. NCT01770379 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.