Tasimelteon for the Treatment of Non-24-hour Sleep-Wake Disorder (N24HSWD) in Blind Individuals With no Light Perception

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: suicidedsm ivdisorderdepressivescreening or
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasescigarettesclinicalalcoholmale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Withdrawal Study to Demonstrate the Maintenance Effect in the Treatment of Non-24-Hour Sleep-Wake Disorder NCT01430754 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Tasimelteon Compared With Placebo in Totally Blind Subjects With Non-24-Hour Sleep-Wake Disorder NCT01163032 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Lemborexant in Subjects 55 Years and Older With Insomnia Disorder (SUNRISE 1) NCT02783729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Daridorexant in Chinese Patients With Insomnia Disorder NCT06010693 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• SM-1 vs 2 Comparators and Placebo in Participants With a History of Transient Insomnia. NCT03331042 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.