A Phase I Study of Oral LGX818 in Adult Patients With Advanced or Metastatic BRAF Mutant Melanoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 30% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-11-07, after 2011-09-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticadvancedlocallycancermelanoma
Phrases that lowered it: iiibjointoralopen labelgastrointestinal -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 366 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1004 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1004 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 366 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- encorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- LGX818 in Combination With Agents (MEK162; BKM120; LEE011; BGJ398; INC280) in Advanced BRAF Melanoma NCT01820364 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- A Phase Ib/II Study of LGX818 in Combination With MEK162 in Adult Patients With BRAF Dependent Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01543698 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of LEE011 and LGX818 in Patients With BRAF Mutant Melanoma. NCT01777776 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
- Study Comparing Combination of LGX818 Plus MEK162 Versus Vemurafenib and LGX818 Monotherapy in BRAF Mutant Melanoma NCT01909453 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- A Study of Vemurafenib and GDC-0973 (Cobimetinib) in Participants With BRAFV600E Mutation-Positive Metastatic Melanoma NCT01271803 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.