A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI-546 in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreater thanrandomizationchronic
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluateand safetyefficacy andsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Tolerability Study of MEDI-570 in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT01127321 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability of Intravenous Dose of MEDI-546 in Japanese Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. NCT01559090 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Tolerability of IV or SC Dose of MEDI-545 in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus. NCT01031836 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• An Open-label Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of MEDI-546, for the Treatment of SLE, in Adults NCT01753193 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of AMG 557 in Subjects With Lupus Arthritis NCT01683695 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.