A Three-part Study of Eltrombopag in Thrombocytopenic Subjects With Myelodysplastic Syndromes or Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapyleukemiaamlbonemarrow
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsscreeninginvestigatorperiodthe study
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 110 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 37.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 285 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 319 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 650 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Eltrombopag Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Subjects With Advanced Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) or Secondary Acute Myeloid Leukemia After MDS (sAML/MDS) NCT00903422 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Eltrombopag Combined With Azacitidine to Treat Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT01481220 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag Olamine in Improving Platelet Recovery in Older Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia Undergoing Chemotherapy NCT02071901 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag in Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Patients With Thrombocytopenia NCT01286038 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Eltrombopag or Placebo in Combination With Azacitidine in Subjects With International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) Intermediate-1, Intermediate-2 or High-risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT02158936 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.