A Study to Evaluate the Effect of ASP8597 in Adult Kidney Transplant Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidneydonortransplantsubject hassubject is
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyevaluate theto evaluatepharmacokineticsreceived
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 307 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Pharmacokinetic, Pharmacodynamic, Safety and Tolerability of ASKP1240 in de Novo Kidney Transplantation NCT01279538 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of the Safety of Diannexin in Kidney Transplant Recipients NCT00615966 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Envarsus® Once Daily With Everolimus in Elderly Kidney Transplant Recipients: Pharmacokinetic and Clinical Study NCT02970630 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Concentration Controlled Everolimus With Reduced Dose Cyclosporine Versus Mycophenolate Mofetil With Standard Dose Cyclosporine in de Novo Renal Transplant Adult Recipients Treated With Basiliximab and Corticosteroids NCT00658320 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Alefacept in de Novo Kidney Transplant Recipients NCT01163799 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.