Genotype-drive Study of Irinotecan-Cisplatin Combination for Advanced Gastric Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tostageradiationcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andirinotecangenotypeand safetythe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Oxaliplatin, Irinotecan, and S-1 in Gastric Cancer NCT02527785 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Diffuse Gastric and Esophagogastric Junction Cancer S-1 Trial NCT01285557 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Study of Epirubicin, Cisplatin and Capecitabine (ECX) Versus Cisplatin and Capecitabine (CX) for Advanced Gastric Cancer (AGC) NCT00743964 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Trial of Optimizing Platinum-Based Chemotherapy Based on ERCC1 Expression as First-Line Treatment in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT01967875 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
• S-1+Oxaliplatin vs.S-1+Cisplatin First-line Treatment of Advanced or Recurrent Non-intestinal Type Gastric Adenocarcinoma Patients NCT01824459 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.