A Study of the Effect of MK-8457 on Blood Pressure in Hypertensive Participants (MK-8457-004-AM1)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-03-03, after 2011-10-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-03-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multipleinflammatorysurgerydiseasetherapy
Phrases that lowered it: blood pressuremildto moderatenicotinemass index -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 832 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 832 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 173 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Rising Single Dose Study of the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics of MK-8892 (MK-8892-001) NCT01798849 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of MK8266 in Hypertensive Men (MK-8266-002) NCT01096160 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Single Rising Dose Study of MK-8150 (MK-8150-001) NCT01590810 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- A Multiple Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of MK-8150 (MK-8150-002) NCT01656408 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Long-term Study of the Safety of MK-0954A in Patients With Essential Hypertension (MK-0954A-351) NCT01307033 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.