Safety, Tolerability And Mechanism Of Action Of Boswellic Acids (BA) In Multiple Sclerosis (SABA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectmrisyndromepriorsclerosis
  Phrases that lowered it: weekssubjects whopatientsopen labeldiseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Orally Administered BGC20-0134 (Structured Lipid) in Patients With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01037907 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Activity Study of Ibudilast in Subjects With Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01982942 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Comparative Clinical Trial to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerance of BCD-054 and Avonex® for Treatment of Patients With Remitting-relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02744222 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of BIIB033 in Subjects With Multiple Sclerosis NCT01244139 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Exploratory Study to Assess the Effect of Fampridine (BIIB041) on Walking Ability and Balance in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis. NCT01597297 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.