Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) + Acolbifene Against Vasomotor Symptoms (Hot Flushes) in Postmenopausal Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-05-31, after 2011-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: receptorbiopsyplacebo controllediiiestrogen
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateadministration ofmoderatescreening -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 244 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 41 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- prasterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- DHEA Against Vaginal Atrophy - Safety Study of 12 Months NCT01256671 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- DHEA Against Vaginal Atrophy - 3-Month Efficacy Study NCT01256684 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) Against Vaginal Atrophy NCT01358760 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Effects of RAD1901 in the Treatment of Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women NCT00875420 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of RAD1901 in Postmenopausal Women With Moderate to Severe Vasomotor Symptoms NCT02653417 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.