Comparison of Imatinib Versus Dasatinib in Patients With Newly-diagnosed Chronic Phase Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacelleffectivechronicgreater
  Phrases that lowered it: secondarydaycomparisonhivversus
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dasatinib Versus Nilotinib for Treatment Naïve Chronic Myeloid Leukemia NCT03079505 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• An Open-Label, Phase I/II Study of Two Different Schedules of Dasatinib (Sprycel) and Decitabine (Dacogen) Used in Combination for Patients With Accelerated or Blastic Phase Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (Protocol CA180357) NCT01498445 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Randomized Study Comparing the Effect of Dasatinib and Imatinib on Malignant Stem Cells in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia NCT00852566 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• De- Escalation and Stopping Treatment of Imatinib, Nilotinib or sprYcel in Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia NCT01804985 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Dasatinib and Cyclosporine in Treating Patients With Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia Refractory or Intolerant to Imatinib Mesylate NCT01426334 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.