Effect of NPH Insulin, Insulin Detemir and Insulin Glargine on GH-IGF-IGFBP Axis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (159 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartivdiagnosis oftime ofat time
  Phrases that lowered it: insulintrialwith typetype diabeteseffect of
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 84 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 159 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9570 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45230 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Investigate Post Prandial Blood Glucose Control With Fast-acting Human Insulin HinsBet® Compared to Insulin Lispro (Humalog®) and Regular Human Insulin (Huminsulin® Normal) After Ingestion of a Standardized Meal in Subjects With T1DM NCT02739906 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Diurnal Variation of Exogenous Peptides (Endogenous Insulin Jurgita II) NCT01510093 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Comparison of IDegAsp (Inclusive Three Explorative Formulations) With Insulin Degludec and Insulin Aspart Separately Injected in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01868568 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Oral Insulin Formulation in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Subjects NCT06473662 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Trial Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of Insulin Degludec and Insulin Glargine, Both With Insulin Aspart as Mealtime Insulin in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes NCT02034513 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.