Study of Everolimus and Low-dose Cyclophosphamide in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: determineeffectivecellcancerpotential
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatepatientsefficacysorafenibasthma
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2217 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Everolimus and Bevacizumab in Advanced Non-Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) NCT01399918 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Everolimus as Second-line Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT01491672 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of Everolimus With Paclitaxel and Carboplatin in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01014351 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• PRednisone Plus EVerolimus in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Cancer After Failure of VEGFR -TKI NCT02479490 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Biomarkers Before and After Nephrectomy of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated With Everolimus NCT01715935 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.