A Multiple Dose Study Of PD-0360324 In Patients With Active Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lupuserythematosusgreater thanor equalpd
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyevaluate theto evaluateperiodsafety
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 357 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1033 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Learn About the Study Medicine (PF-06823859) in Adults With Active CLE or SLE With Skin Symptoms. NCT05879718 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• To Evaluate the Preliminary Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Efficacy of CC-11050 in Subjects With Discoid Lupus Erythematosus and Subacute Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus NCT01300208 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of AMG 557 in Subjects With Subacute Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus NCT01389895 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Subcutaneous Treatment In Randomized Subjects To Evaluate Safety And Efficacy In Generalized Lupus Erythematosus NCT01405196 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• The WILLOW Study With M5049 in SLE and CLE (SCLE and/or DLE) (WILLOW) NCT05162586 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.