Safety and Efficacy Trial of Ipilimumab Versus Pemetrexed in Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcancersquamousipilimumabchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: visittrialplatinumefficacybased
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 333 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Trial in Squamous Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects Comparing Ipilimumab Versus Placebo in Addition to Paclitaxel and Carboplatin NCT01285609 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Trial in Squamous Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects Comparing Ipilimumab Plus Paclitaxel and Carboplatin Versus Placebo Plus Paclitaxel and Carboplatin NCT02279732 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nivolumab and Ipilimumab Combined With Chemotherapy Compared to Chemotherapy Alone in First Line NSCLC NCT03215706 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Study of Nivolumab Compared to Docetaxel in Subjects Previously Treated With Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02613507 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label, Multicenter Clinical Trial With Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Monotherapy in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Squamous Cell (Sq) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Received at Least One Prior Systemic Regimen for the Treatment of Stage IIIb/IV SqNSCLC NCT02409368 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.