Safety and Efficacy Study of Insulin Lispro Versus Insulin Aspart in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes on Insulin Pump Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapypriorrandomized doublethe safetygreater
  Phrases that lowered it: insulinkgparticipantsscreeningcrossover
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 204 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 20761 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of Insulin Degludec and Insulin Glargine, With or Without OADs in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02030600 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Insulin Lispro 6 Days Versus Insulin Aspart 6 Days in Pump Use NCT01109316 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study To Compare the Effects of Insulin Peglispro and Glargine on Insulin Sensitivity and Meal Time Insulin Requirements in Type 2 Diabetics NCT02197520 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Insulin Lispro 6 Days Versus Insulin Aspart 6 Days in Pump Use NCT01134107 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Continuous Subcutaneous Insulin Infusion of Faster-acting Insulin Aspart Compared to NovoRapid® in Adults With Type 1 Diabetes NCT02825251 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.