RYGB and the Gastric Adipose Axis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (137 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-07-31, after 2012-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: surgeryto determinedetermine iftissuesensitivity
Phrases that lowered it: gastricsmokingintestinalplasmacigarettes -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 127 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 127 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 41 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ghrelin and Insulin Resistance NCT00884494 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Effect of Ghrelin on Glucose Metabolism After Bariatric Surgery NCT02953587 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Bariatric Surgery on Metabolism, the Metabolome and Microbiome in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02762708 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Role of GLP-1 in Hyperinsulinemic Hypoglycemia Post-bariatric Surgery NCT02550145 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
- Effect of GLP-1 Receptor Agonism After Sleeve Gastrectomy NCT03115424 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.