Conversion of Prograf to Advagraf in Pediatric Renal Transplant Recipients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stableacutepatientstransplantationtransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticpharmacokineticstimescompareupper
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 87 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 12512 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Compare How the Body Absorbs and Processes Two Different Formulations of the Anti-rejection Medication Tacrolimus (Advagraf® or Prograf®) in Children Receiving an Organ Transplant, and How Safe and Effective They Are Over a Longer Period of Time NCT01614665 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare the Pharmacokinetics of Tacrolimus in Stable Pediatric Allograft Recipients Converted From Prograf® to Advagraf® NCT01294020 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Prograf-Advagraf Cross Over Conversion Study NCT01797341 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare the Pharmacokinetics of Tacrolimus in Adult Transplant Recipients Treated With Advagraf® or Prograf® NCT01332201 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• A Comparison of the Effects of Extended Release Tacrolimus (Advagraf®) vs. Immediate Release Tacrolimus (Prograf®) on Kidney Function in Healthy Male Volunteers NCT01681134 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.