A Phase 3b Study to Assess the Safety of Novartis Meningococcal B Recombinant Vaccine When Administered in Healthy At-risk Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hivinfectiontherapyserumcontrol
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinereceipthealthyor suspectedmeningococcal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3b, Single-Center, Open-label Study to Assess the Immunogenicity and Safety of Novartis Meningococcal B Recombinant Vaccine When Administered at a 0, 2-Month Schedule in Healthy At-Risk Adults Aged 18 to 65 Years Inclusive. NCT01911221 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• Effectiveness of GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals S.A's Meningococcal Group B and Combined ABCWY Vaccines in Healthy Adolescents and Young Adults NCT04502693 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3B, Open Label, Multi-Center Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity of Novartis Meningococcal B Recombinant Vaccine When Administered Alone to Healthy Infants According to Different Immunization Schedules and to Healthy Children Aged 2 to 10 Years NCT01339923 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Immunogenicity and Safety Study of GSK's MenABCWY Vaccine in Healthy Adolescents and Adults Previously Primed With MenACWY Vaccine NCT04707391 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Potential Immune Interference When GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Biologicals' MenABCWY Vaccine is Administered to Healthy Subjects Aged 10-25 Years NCT03587207 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.