OPTIMAL>60 / DR. CHOP, Improvement of Therapy of Elderly Patients with CD20+ DLBCL Using Rituximab Optimized and Liposomal Vincristine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patienttreatmentcellperformance statusrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: lymphomavitamintumorsreferencethe upper
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 61 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Rituximab and Bendamustine in Very Elderly Patients or Elderly Medically Non Fit Patients With Aggressive B-cell Lymphoma NCT01686321 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study on Tailored Treatment in Elderly Patients With Newly Diagnosed Primary Lymphoma of Central Nervous System NCT03495960 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab With Gemcitabine, Oxaliplatin + Rituximab in r/r Elderly Lymphoma Patients NCT03366272 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Phase II Randomized Study With R-DHAP +/- Bortezomib as Induction Therapy in Relapsed/Refractory Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) Patients Eligible to Transplantation. BR-DHAP Versus R-DHAP. NCT01805557 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• GA In NEwly Diagnosed Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma NCT01659099 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.