Efficacy and Safety of Simtuzumab (SIM) With FOLFIRI as Second Line Treatment in Colorectal Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 36% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastatictherapycolorectalcancerchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsefficacyscreeningand safetysafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• QUILT-2.018: Safety & Efficacy of FOLFIRI With AMG 479 or AMG 655 vs FOLFIRI Alone in KRAS-mutant Metastatic Colorectal Carcinoma NCT00813605 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• PEAK: Panitumumab Plus mFOLFOX6 vs. Bevacizumab Plus mFOLFOX6 for First Line Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (mCRC) Patients With Wild-Type Kirsten Rat Sarcoma-2 Virus (KRAS) Tumors NCT00819780 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Sorafenib in Combination With Irinotecan in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With KRAS Mutated Tumors NCT01715441 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study Of PF-05212384 Plus Irinotecan Vs Cetuximab Plus Irinotecan In Patients With KRAS And NRAS Wild Type Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01925274 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2, Randomized, Double Blind, Placebo Controlled Study of AMG 386 in Combination With FOLFIRI in Subjects With Previously Treated Metastatic Colorectal Carcinoma NCT00752570 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.