A Phase 1 Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ABT-126 in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradprobablediseasedementia
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsadministrationmaledrugallergy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 114 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 90 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ABT-354 in Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT01908010 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT01549834 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ABT-957 in Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT02220738 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01527916 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study for Subjects With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00948909 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.