Safety, Efficacy and Dose-response Study of BMS-986001 in Subjects With HIV-1 Infection Who Are Treatment-naive

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmssubjectscellsis safecontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: hiv infectedinvestigateantiretroviralopen labelefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 277 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose-finding Study of BMS-955176 to Treat HIV-1 Infected Treatment-naive Adults NCT02415595 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
• HIV Attachment Inhibitor to Treat Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 (HIV-1) Infections NCT01384734 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Strategy-confirming Study of BMS-955176 to Treat HIV-1 Infected Treatment-experienced Adults NCT02386098 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate a HIV Drug for the Treatment of HIV Infection NCT01803074 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Cenicriviroc (CVC) in Combination With Truvada or Sustiva Plus Truvada in HIV 1-infected, Antiretroviral Treatment-naïve, Adult Patients Infected With Only CCR5-tropic Virus NCT01338883 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.