PVSRIPO for Recurrent Glioblastoma (GBM)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mriradiationpatients mustchemotherapyrecurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesand safetythe informedthis trialthe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 1b Study PVSRIPO for Recurrent Malignant Glioma in Children NCT03043391 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Lerapolturev in Recurrent Malignant Glioma NCT02986178 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of Glioma Associated Antigen Vaccines in Conjunction with Poly-ICLC in Pediatric Gliomas NCT01130077 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Cytomegalovirus (CMV) RNA-Pulsed Dendritic Cells for Pediatric Patients and Young Adults With WHO Grade IV Glioma, Recurrent Malignant Glioma, or Recurrent Medulloblastoma NCT03615404 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of AP 12009 in Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Anaplastic Astrocytoma or Secondary Glioblastoma NCT00761280 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.