RADVAX™: A STRATIFIED PHASE I/II DOSE ESCALATION TRIAL OF HYPOFRACTIONATED RADIOTHERAPY FOLLOWED BY IPILIMUMAB IN METASTATIC MELANOMA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 42% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinebrainmetastaticmelanomapatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: bodyindexlong termclinicalpreviously
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 383 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy Followed by Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Stage IV Melanoma NCT01970527 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• MSB0010445 and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy in Advanced Melanoma NCT01973608 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Trial of SBRT With Concurrent Ipilimumab in Metastatic Melanoma NCT02406183 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab Plus Radiotherapy in Advanced Melanoma NCT02799901 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study of Radiotherapy Administered in Combination With Ipilimumab in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or Stage IV Advanced Malignant Melanoma NCT01557114 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.