Pooled Unrelated Donor Umbilical Cord Blood Transplant For Hematologic Malignancy Needing Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant Without Related HLA-Match
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2013-11-30, after 2011-11-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patients mustamlcelltransplantdonor
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatemyelomascreeningblood -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 34.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 7 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 7 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 26923 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6191 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 34.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- busulfan, carmustine, clofarabine, cytarabine, etoposide, fludarabine, melphalan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Randomized HaploCord Blood Transplantation vs. Double Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation for Hematologic Malignancies NCT01745913 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Trial Of Double Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation NCT00763490 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Pilot Trial of Targeted Immune-Depleting Chemotherapy and Reduced-Intensity Matched Unrelated Double Cord Blood Transplant for the Treatment of Leukemias, Lymphomas, and Pre-Malignant Blood Disorders NCT00973804 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Evaluating the Safety and Effectiveness of an Umbilical Cord Blood Stem Cell Transplant (BMT CTN 0604) NCT00864227 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Umbilical Cord Blood Transplant for Hematological Malignancies NCT00891592 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.