Provoked Craving Assessment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-12-31, after 2011-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: anginathe subjectminimyocardialinfarction
Phrases that lowered it: smokerssafety ofnicotineper daycigarettes -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 428 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 26.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1474 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1474 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 428 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17017 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2112 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 26.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Provoked Craving Relief Study by NRT NCT01476202 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Nicotine Lozenge in Relief of Provoked Acute Craving NCT01466361 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Nicotine Mint Lozenge (2mg and 4mg) in Smoking Cessation NCT00985985 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Early Effects of a New Oral Nicotine Replacement Product and NiQuitin™ Lozenge NCT01075659 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Abuse Liability of Very Low Nicotine (VLN) Mentholated Cigarettes NCT03559725 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.