Vasodilator Therapy for Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapypatientscardiacheartprior
  Phrases that lowered it: massblood pressureeffectclinicallymmhg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Effectiveness of Sildenafil at Improving Health Outcomes and Exercise Ability in People With Diastolic Heart Failure (The RELAX Study) NCT00763867 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Targeting Central Pulsatile Hemodynamics in Chronic Kidney Disease NCT02791906 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Inorganic Nitrite to Amplify the Benefits and Tolerability of Exercise Training in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) (INABLE-Training) NCT02713126 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Inorganic Nitrite Delivery to Improve Exercise Capacity in HFpEF NCT02742129 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Effect of KNO3 Compared to KCl on Oxygen UpTake in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (KNO3CK OUT HFPEF) NCT02840799 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.