Clinical Trial Examining the Short and Long-term Effect of Myofascial Trigger Points Injection in Low Back Pain Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paindisorderchronicsyndrometrauma
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofmonthsinjectionclinical trialabnormal
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Magnesium-Based Trigger Point Injections for Relief of Chronic Myofascial Pelvic Pain NCT02728037 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating Heated Lidocaine/Tetracaine Patch in Patients With Pain Associated With Myofascial Trigger Points NCT01106989 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Trigger Point Injection in Reducing Pain Following Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT06955923 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Multicenter Randomized Double-blind Study Evaluating the Effects of Botulinum Toxin A Associated With ropivacaïne Versus ropivacaïne Alone in the Treatment of the Myofascial Pelviperineal Pain NCT01967524 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Bupivacaine TTS Patch in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT01096966 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.