Detecting the Impact of Statin Therapy On Lowering Risk of Venous Thrombo-Embolic Events (DISOLVE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientstherapycancerchemotherapyrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: crossoverperiodscreeningparticipanteffect of
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10152 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 39329 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Study of Rosuvastatin and Enoxaparin Thromboprophylaxis Following Ovarian Cancer Surgery (O-STAT Study) NCT03532139 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Rosuvastatin in Treating Women With Cardiovascular Complications Who Are Undergoing Chemotherapy For Breast Cancer NCT01051401 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Study of a Statin + Erlotinib for Advanced Solid Malignancies With Focus on Squamous Cell Carcinomas and NSCLC NCT00966472 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Rosuvastatin in the Treatment of Rectal Cancer NCT02569645 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Rosuvastatin in Treating Patients With Stage I or Stage II Colon Cancer That Was Removed By Surgery NCT01011478 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.