Trial Comparing Adjuvant Chemotherapy With Gemcitabine Versus mFolfirinox to Treat Resected Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellchemotherapypatientcarcinomasquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: phase iiioxaliplatinhepatitissymptomssevere
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 79 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1276 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized Phase III Trial Comparing Folfirinox to Gemcitabine in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Carcinoma NCT02539537 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Randomized Multicenter Phase II/III Study With Adjuvant Gemcitabine Versus Neoadjuvant / Adjuvant FOLFIRINOX for Resectable Pancreas Carcinoma NCT02172976 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Adjuvant Versus Neoadjuvant Plus Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT01314027 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Trial to Investigate Intensified Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT02125136 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• NEOadjuvant Gemcitabine/Oxaliplatin Plus Adjuvant Gemcitabine in Resectable PAncreatic Cancer NCT01521702 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.