Clinical Trial With Vinflunine as Maintenance Therapy in Metastatic Urothelial Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticof studystudy treatmentwomen ofdose of
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoclinicalcisplatinto evaluatediseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• JAVLOR Association Study in CDDP-unfit Patients With Advanced Transitional Cell Carcinoma: Gemcitabine Versus Carboplatin NCT01599013 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Trial With Vinflunine in Patients With Metastatic Bladder Cancer and Impaired Renal Function NCT02665039 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Trial of Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine and Cisplatin in Bladder Cancer NCT02560038 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, Cisplatin, and Temsirolimus as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced and/or Metastatic Transitional Cell Cancer of the Urothelium NCT01090466 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, Cisplatin, and Sunitinib Malate as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced And/or Metastatic Transitional Cell Carcinoma of the Urothelium (SUCCINCT) NCT01089088 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.