Exploratory Safety Study of ALD518 in Subjects With Steroid-refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease (GVHD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: refractorygvhdstageprioracute
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectskgscreeningdosesclinical trial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of GVHD in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) Recipients Using AAT Plus Corticosteroids (CS) Compared With Corticosteroids Alone NCT04167514 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK, PD, and Clinical Activity of EQ001 in Subjects With aGVHD NCT03763318 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Dose-Finding Study of Vedolizumab for Treatment of Steroid-Refractory Acute Intestinal Graft-Versus-Host Disease (GvHD) in Participants Who Have Undergone Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (Allo-HSCT) NCT02993783 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2A Study of ALXN1007 in Participants With Newly Diagnosed Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Graft-Versus-Host Disease NCT02245412 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• A Pilot Study of Alpha-1-Antitrypsin (AAT) in Steroid Refractory Acute Graft vs Host Disease NCT01700036 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.